Predictions for the 98th Annual Academy Awards

These are my Oscar predictions. Nominees listed in whatever order the page I copied them from had them and predicted winners are in bold. Guaranteed to get 16-18 correct, no more, no less.

BEST PICTURE

Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams

BEST DIRECTOR

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners

BEST ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

BEST ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Blue Moon, written by Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident, written by Jafar Panahi; script collaborators: Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme, written by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value, written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Sinners, written by Ryan Coogler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Bugonia, screenplay by Will Tracy
Frankenstein, written for the screen by Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet, screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle after Another, written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams, screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams

BEST FILM EDITING

F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Frankenstein, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
Kokuho, Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
Sinners, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
The Smashing Machine, Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
The Ugly Stepsister, Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet, Max Richter
One Battle after Another, Jonny Greenwood
Sinners, Ludwig Goransson

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; music and lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; music and lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied to You” from Sinners; music and lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; music and lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyric by Nick Cave

BEST SOUND

F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt

BEST CASTING

Hamnet, Nina Gold
Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti
One Battle after Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent, Gabriel Domingues
Sinners, Francine Maisler

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

The Secret Agent, Brazil
It Was Just an Accident, France
Sentimental Value, Norway
Sirāt, Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Butcher’s Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters

This Week in Rankings

Since the last updated, I’ve written a number of essays for home video releases, most, but not all, of which have been announced: Criterion’s release of Kurosawa Kiyoshi’s Cloud, Radiance’s Romancing in Thin Air (for which I scripted and narrated a video essay on the history of Johnnie To’s romances) and Imprint Asia’s edition of John Woo’s The Killer. Expect more announcements in the coming weeks, but for now, all those are available to purchase or pre-order at DiabolikDVD. 2025 also came to an end, and I wrapped it up with my annual Favorite Discoveries of the Year, Books of the Year, and Endy Award Nominees. I also wrote about Eephus for InReview Online’s End of the Year countdown.

Over at The Chinese Cinema, I reviewed Herman Yau’s A Gilded Game, Oshii Mamoru’s Angel’s Egg and The Red Spectacles, Jackie Chan’s The Shadow’s Edge and Chris Huo’s The Sixth Robber, Misumi Kenji et al’s Lone Wolf & Cub film series, Akimoto Kenichiro’s All You Need is Kill, a Clara Law Retrospective at the Metrograph, Louis Koo’s Back to the Past, Yuen Woo-ping’s Blades of the Guardians and a whole bunch of iQIYI movies (including a new Raquel Report).

I reviewed a number of films from this year’s Rotterdam International Film Festival for InReview Online: Lone Samurai, Tunnels, Fish Fists and Ambergris, and Under Current. I also appeared on a couple of podcasts, talking about Lifeline, Fulltime Killer, and Bullets Over Summer on Optimism Vaccine and Baby Assassins and then A Matter of Life and Death on the Dirty Dozen Movie Podcast.

You can get all those reviews and much much more by subscribing to The Chinese Cinema today for the low price of only $1/month or $10/year.

These are the movies I’ve watched and rewatched over the last few months, and where they place on my year-by-year rankings.

Meet Me in St. Louis (Vincente Minnelli) – 1, 1944
A Matter of Life and Death (Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger) – 3, 1946
The Treasure of the Sierra Madre (John Huston) – 16, 1948
Seven Samurai (Kurosawa Akira) – 1, 1954

The Pink Phink (Friz Freleng & Hawley Pratt) – 15, 1964
A Charlie Brown Christmas (Bill Melendez) – 3, 1965
How the Grinch Stole Christmas (Chuck Jones) – 15, 1966
Scrooge (Ronald Neame) – 32, 1970

Lone Wolf & Cub: Baby Cart to Hades (Misumi Kenji) – 6, 1972
Lone Wolf & Cub: Baby Cart at the River Styx (Misumi Kenji) – 8, 1972
Lone Wolf & Cub: Sword of Vengeance (Misumi Kenji) – 14, 1972
Lone Wolf & Cub: Baby Cart in Peril (Saito Buichi) – 21, 1972
Lone Wolf & Cub: Baby Cart in the Land of Demons (Misumi Kenji) – 38, 1973
A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving (Bill Melendez & Phil Roman) – 41, 1973
Lone Wolf & Cub: White Heaven in Hell (Kuroda Yoshiyuki) – 25, 1974

The Deer Hunter (Michael Cimino) – 24, 1978
The Proud Youth (Sun Chang) – 27, 1978
The Story of Woo Viet (Ann Hui) – 7, 1981
Heroes Shed No Tears (John Woo) – 56, 1984
Angel’s Egg (Oshii Mamoru) – 16, 1985
They Say the Moon is Fuller Here (Clara Law) – 24, 1985

A Better Tomorrow (John Woo) – 4, 1986
Lady Jane (Trevor Nunn) – 39, 1986
City on Fire (Ringo Lam) – 2, 1987
Planes, Trains, and Automobiles (John Hughes) – 27, 1987
Lethal Weapon (Richard Donner) – 36, 1987
The Red Spectacles (Oshii Mamoru) – 39, 1987
A Better Tomorrow II (John Woo) – 43, 1987

The Killer (John Woo) – 2, 1989
A Better Tomorrow III: Love and Death in Saigon (Tsui Hark) – 11, 1989
Bullet in the Head (John Woo) – 4, 1990
Farewell China (Clara Law) – 10, 1990
Once a Thief (John Woo) – 26, 1991

Full Contact (Ringo Lam) – 6, 1992
Autumn Moon (Clara Law) – 12, 1992
Schindler’s List (Steven Spielberg) – 32, 1993
Dead Presidents (Allen and Albert Hughes) – 50, 1995

The Odd Ones Dies (Patrick Yau) – 19, 1997
Lifeline (Johnnie To) – 23, 1997
Bullets Over Summer (Wilson Yip) – 26, 1999
Where a Good Man Goes (Johnnie To) – 30, 1999
Needing You… (Johnnie To & Wai Ka-fai) – 13, 2000
The Goddess of 1967 (Clara Law) – 23, 2000

Love on a Diet (Johnnie To & Wai Ka-fai) – 24, 2001
Fulltime Killer (Johnnie To & Wai Ka-fai) – 40, 2001
My Left Eye Sees Ghosts (Johnnie To & Wai Ka-fai) – 2, 2002
Turn Left, Turn Right (Johnnie To & Wai Ka-fai) – 12, 2003
Love for All Seasons (Johnnie To & Wai Ka-fai) – 19, 2003

The Shopaholics (Wai Ka-fai) – 8, 2006
Watching the Detectives (Paul Soter) – 57, 2007
Don’t Go Breaking My Heart (Johnnie To) – 7, 2011
Romancing in Thin Air (Johnnie To) – 1, 2012
Don’t Go Breaking My Heart 2 (Johnnie To) – 4, 2014
The Man Who Invented Christmas (Bharat Nalluri) – 84, 2017

Little Women (Greta Gerwig) – 1, 2019
Baby Assassins (Sakamoto Yugo) – 6, 2021
My Dear Bodyguard (Guai Ge) – 95, 2022
The Sniper: King of Snipers (Chris Huo) – 22, 2023

Eephus (Carson Lund) – 3, 2024
Pavements (Alex Ross Perry) – 2024
Henry Fonda for President (Alexander Horwath) – 2024
Friendship (Andrew DeYoung) – 2024
Once Upon a Time in China (Qin Pengfei) – 82, 2024
The Captives (Frankie Chung) – 83, 2024
Hot Blooded Angel (Jin Xin) – 86, 2024

One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson) – 3, 2025
Nouvelle Vague (Richard Linklater) – 5, 2025
The Mastermind (Kelly Reichardt) – 6, 2025
Lone Samurai (Josh C. Waller) – 7, 2025
Resurrection (Bi Gan) – 9, 2025

The Sixth Robber (Chris Huo) – 11, 2025
WTO/99 (Ian Bell) – 15, 2025
Ella McKay (James L. Brooks) – 16, 2025
Videoheaven (Alex Ross Perry) – 17, 2025
Blue Moon (Richard Linklater) – 21, 2025

Tunnels: Sun in the Dark (Bùi Thạc Chuyên) – 23, 2025
Honey Don’t (Ethan Coen) – 24, 2025
Fish, Fists, and Ambergris (Dương Minh Chiến) – 25, 2025
Avatar: Fire and Ash (James Cameron) – 38, 2025
All You Need is Kill (Akimoto Kenichiro) – 41, 2025

It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi) – 43, 2025
Lilith Fair: Building A Mystery (Ally Pankiw) – 45, 2025
The Shadow’s Edge (Larry Yang) – 46, 2025
Back to the Past (Louis Koo) – 48, 2025
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (Mary Bronstein) – 49, 2025

Peter Hujar’s Day (Ira Sachs) – 50, 2025
Invincible Swordsman (Luo Yiwei) – 51, 2025
Train Dreams (Clint Bently) – 52, 2025
A Gilded Game (Herman Yau) – 54, 2025
Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro) – 62, 2025
Wake Up Dead Man (Rian Johnson) – 63, 2025

The Finder (Qin Pengfei) – 65, 2025
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (Simon Curtis) – 70, 2025
Highest 2 Lowest (Spike Lee) – 71, 2025
Under Current (Alan Mak) – 89, 2025
Oh. What. Fun. (Michael Showalter) – 93, 2025
Eddington (Ari Aster) – 94, 2025

Blades of the Guardians (Yuen Woo-ping) – 1, 2026
The Fly: Abyss of Mutation (Stanley Zhang) – 2, 2026