Predictions for the 95th Annual Academy Awards

These are my Oscar predictions. I’m not sure yet if I’m going to live-tweet the Endy Award winners during the ceremony again this year. Maybe.

BEST PICTURE

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

BEST ACTOR

Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fablemans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Todd Field, Tár
Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie from a story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks, Top Gun: Maverick
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, and Lesley Paterson, All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár

BEST FILM EDITING

The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Applause – Tell It Like a Woman (Diane Warren)
Hold My Hand – Top Gun: Maverick (Lady Gaga, BloodPop)
Naatu Naatu – RRR (MM Keeravaani, Chandrabose)
Lift Me Up – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Ryan Coogler)
This Is A Life – Everything Everywhere All at Once (Ryan Lott, David Byrne, Mitski)

BEST SOUND

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet One (Ireland)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Predictions for the 94th Annual Academy Awards

These are my Oscar predictions. I’m not sure yet if I’m going to live-tweet the Endy Award winners during the ceremony again this year. Maybe.

BEST PICTURE

Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST DIRECTOR

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

BEST ACTOR

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

BEST FILM EDITING

Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick…Boom!

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune
Free Guy
No Time To Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Dune
Nightmare Alley
Power
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Be Alive,” King Richard, Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Dixson
“Dos Oroguitos,” Encanto, Lin-Manuel Miranda
“Down to Joy,” Belfast, Van Morrison
“No Time To Die,” No Time To Die, Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell
“Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days, Diane Warren

BEST SOUND

Belfast
Dune
No Time To Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing With Fire

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Yanna (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs of Benazir
When We Were Bullies

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Ala Kacchu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper

Predictions for the 93rd Annual Academy Awards

These are my Oscar predictions. I’m not sure yet if I’m going to live-tweet the Endy Award winners during the ceremony again this year. Maybe.

BEST PICTURE

The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST DIRECTOR

Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

BEST ACTOR

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami…
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami…
The White Tiger

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST FILM EDITING

The Father
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Fight For You,” Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7
“Husavik,” Eurovision Song Contest
“Io Sì (Seen),” The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
Speak Now,” One Night In Miami…

BEST SOUND

Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Another Round
Better Days
Collective
The Man Who Sold His Skin
Quo Vadis, Aida?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Colette
A Concerto Is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People

Predictions for the 92nd Annual Academy Awards

These are my Oscar predictions. During the ceremony Sunday night, as I’ve done for the past couple of years, I’ll be live-tweeting the winners of the 2019 Endy Awards, the nominees for which can be found here. Follow along on twitter @TheEndofCinema.

BEST PICTURE

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood
Parasite

BEST DIRECTOR

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

BEST ACTOR

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Knives Out, Rian Johnson
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
1917, Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Parasite, Bong Joon Ho & Han Jin Won

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
Joker, Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
Joker, Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke
1917, Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood, Robert Richardson

BEST FILM EDITING

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood
Parasite

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Joker, Hildur Guðnadóttir
Little Women, Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story, Randy Newman
1917, Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4, Randy Newman
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman, Elton John & Bernie Taupin
“I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough, Diane Warren
“Into The Unknown” from Frozen II, Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez
“Stand Up” from Harriet, Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo

BEST SOUND EDITING

Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST SOUND MIXING

Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

In The Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window
Saria
A Sister

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister

Predictions for the 91st Annual Academy Awards

These are my Oscar predictions. During the ceremony Sunday night, as I’ve done for the past couple of years, I’ll be live-tweeting the winners of the 2018 Endy Awards, the nominees for which can be found here. Follow along on twitter @TheEndofCinema.

BEST PICTURE

Black Panther
Blackkklansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

BEST DIRECTOR

Spike Lee, Blackkklansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

BEST ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina De Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born

BEST FILM EDITING

BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“All The Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST SOUND EDITING

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

BEST SOUND MIXING

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

Predictions for the 89th Annual Academy Awards

These are my Oscar predictions. During the ceremony tomorrow night, as I’ve done for the past couple of years, I’ll be live-tweeting the winners of the 2016 Endy Awards, the nominees for which can be found here. Follow along on twitter @TheEndofCinema.

BEST PICTURE

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

BEST DIRECTOR

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

BEST ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

BEST FILM EDITING

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

BEST SOUND EDITING

Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

BEST SOUND MIXING

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Predictions for the 88th Annual Academy Awards

These are my picks for the winners of this year’s Academy Awards. On Sunday night, I’ll be tweeting out the winners of the 2015 Endy Awards during the Oscar ceremony. You can follow me there @theendofcinema. Here are the current 2015 Endy Award Nominees. We also had a special Oscar edition of The George Sanders Show last weekend, picking our 2015 favorites and discussing two Oscar films from 1946, best Picture nominee The Razor’s Edge and Best Song nominee Canyon Passage. My predictions are the ones in bold.
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On the 2014 Academy Awards (Or the Vice of Intended Ignorance)

I do love the Oscars. As long as I can remember, I’ve watched them. The first ceremony I have any memory of was the one held in 1982, just days shy of my sixth birthday. I had only seen one of the films in contention, Raiders of the Lost Ark, of course, but all I really remember is the theme song from Chariots of Fire. We watched the show every year, whether we’d seen any of the movies or not (my mom would race home from work to catch the beginning (back when the show used to be on a Monday so that it wouldn’t compete with weekend theatrical movie business, remember when that was a thing that mattered?) and I’d have to fill her in on any awards she’d just missed (Supporting Actor or Actress, always). I remember ET inexplicably losing to Gandhi (though mom raved about Ben Kingsley’s performance). I remember The Right Stuff (a very popular film among the grown-ups I knew; though I’d seen it, it was too slow and boring for me at that point) being upset by Terms of Endearment and mom’s love of Out of Africa (big Redford fan) and Amadeus. I remember someone on television claiming that Dustin Hoffman in Rain Man was one of the best performances ever. I remember rooting for Dead Poets Society or Field of Dreams and being as baffled as anyone by Driving Miss Daisy‘s win.

1990, when I was 14, was the first time I saw all of the nominees for Best Picture. I can’t say if I saw them all before the ceremony, but I made the effort to see them as soon as possible (Goodfellas had to wait until HBO, for sure). I loved Dances with Wolves that year, and Silence of the Lambs the next (HBO again, I read the book too), though I was rooting for JFK. Unforgiven was my favorite in 1992, a movie I saw multiple times, once in a drive-in even, on a double bill with Terminator 2. Schindler’s List I saw three times in the theatre, I was convinced that, as I kept hearing, it was indeed the greatest movie ever made. The Oscars, as long as I could remember, were for big movies, important movies, great movies. And then, in 1994, the year I started college, Forrest Gump beat Pulp Fiction and the Academy Awards, or at least, my relation to them, have never been the same.


I’ve often referred to 1994 as Year Zero for cinephiles of my generation. Growing up in the hinterlands, a world of chain video stores and zero repertory film, our exposure to the films of the past, especially foreign and art films, was severely limited. Every video store had a foreign film section, of course, but those usually consisted of a few Kurosawa epics and a handful of Gerard Depardieu spectacles. The classic film sections were better stocked, but without a reliable guide, no one knew where to begin. The film sections of the local bookstores mostly consisted of Leonard Maltin and his imitators, and when I was in college my friends and I would spend hours pouring through his guides along with the Video Hound Golden Movie Retriever (which rated everything on a scale of “Woof” to “Four Bones”). So we had a passing familiarity with Hitchcock, Welles, Scorsese, and the Best Picture Oscar winners, but not much else. But then Quentin Tarantino came along, bursting with big city video store knowledge, urging, demanding that the kids like us who loved his movies seek out in turn the films he loved. (An example, in June 1995 Tarantino presented Jackie Chan with the Lifetime Achievement MTV Movie Award, which was accompanied by a greatest hits reel of Chan stunts. I had never seen a Hong Kong movie, I’d never heard of Jackie Chan. But that award led to a wide US release for Rumble in the Bronx, so wide it even played Spokane. I saw that and the few other Chans I could find on video (dubbed, badly, of course), and when I moved to Seattle, I dived headfirst into Hong Kong cinema, an obsession that has yet to subside.)  Reservoir Dogs, True Romance and Pulp Fiction (the first two I watched back to back one weekend afternoon, after my friends learned I’d never seen a Tarantino film; I had heard he’d won the Palme d’Or, but didn’t know he’d made any other movies) demanded we familiarize ourselves with their influences: film noir, Howard Hawks, Jean-Luc Godard (one of our favorite pass-times was driving around to all the video stores in town looking for a copy of Breathless. After years of searching, when finally found it for a $10 rental at a short-lived Jazz record store downtown). Movies with Christopher Walken and John Travolta and Harvey Keitel. We sought them all out, and each new discovery led to three more must-see films. Around the same time, Turner Classic Movies launched, opening a whole new front in the war on limited distribution. I’d always been a movie fan, going to the theatre was the one thing my mom, my sister and I ever did as a family, but 1994 was the year I became a cinephile, and Pulp Fiction was the spark.

And then it lost Best Picture to Forrest Gump. A fine movie, sure, one we’d all liked when it came out that summer. But it looked positively ⃞  next to Pulp Fiction. The divide was cultural, political, generational. That was their movie and this was ours, and we’d been robbed. The pattern continued, year after year: our favorites always just losing to something bigger, blander, more mainstream. I don’t know if that was new, I suspect it wasn’t, but it seemed like a new development. Like there really was a generational war at play in Hollywood, between the old guard of respectable spectacle and a new wave of independent, Alternative to use the word of the times, cinema. The consensus of the 1980s, where every couple of years it seemed everyone agreed that the Best Picture really was The Best, and would therefore reward it with a multi-Oscar sweep, were gone. But it would take a few years for this split to play itself out, the big sweeps would continue for the rest of the 90s, though the rhetoric around the Oscars and their wrongness would grow with each middlebrow choice.

Here are the Best Picture winners from 1980-1993, along with their total number of Oscars won:

1980: Ordinary People – 4
1981: Chariots of Fire – 4
1982: Ghandi – 8
1983: Terms of Endearment – 5
1984: Amadeus – 8
1985: Out of Africa – 7
1986: Platoon – 4
1987: The Last Emperor – 9
1988: Rain Man – 4
1989: Driving Miss Daisy – 4
1990: Dances with Wolves – 7
1991: Silence of the Lambs – 5
1992: Unforgiven – 4
1993: Schindler’s List – 7

That’s an average of 5.7 Oscars per winner, with 6 films out of 14 winning 7 or more awards. The average would actually go up over the next 10 years, with 4 big sweeps leading to 6.9 Oscars per winner:

1994: Forrest Gump – 6
1995: Braveheart – 5
1996: The English Patient – 9
1997: Titanic – 11
1998: Shakespeare in Love – 7
1999: American Beauty – 5
2000: Gladiator – 5
2001: A Beautiful Mind – 4
2002: Chicago – 6
2003: Return of the King – 11

But that was the last time there was any real consensus, and one could argue the Return of the King number is a fluke, driven by three years of wonder at Peter Jackson’s epic trilogy. The next 11 years show a striking break with tradition, with an average of only 4.3 Oscars per Best Picture winner:

2004: Million Dollar Baby – 4
2005: Crash – 3
2006: The Departed – 4
2007: No Country for Old Men – 4
2008: Slumdog Millionaire – 8
2009: The Hurt Locker – 6
2010: The King’s Speech – 4
2011: The Artist – 5
2012: Argo – 3
2013: 12 Years a Slave – 3
2014: Birdman – 4

There are any number of possible explanations for this trend, most probable simply being the increasing split between blockbuster “entertainment” films that dominate the technical categories while low-budget (in)dependent films, driven by strong acting, directing and writing, dominate the more prestigious awards, making a 7 Oscar win relatively rare (in order to reach that number, a film has to do well in either the effects or design categories, areas which favor big-budget spectacle). But is there in fact some more ideological, something like my (perceived) generational split at work?

Oscar season has increasingly come to be defined as a race, with the contenders and dark horses defined long before any of the films in question have been seen, and then adjusted up and down the odds tables throughout the fall festival season and into the end-of-the-year awards deluge, with critics’ groups routinely seen as mere precursors to the main events, and therefore their relevance defined by their relation to the established narrative (thus the cries of anguish from the awards bloggers when the National Society of Film Critics awarded Adieu au langage their Best Picture this past year: the Godard film wasn’t part of the defined race, and therefore the group was marginalizing themselves by choosing to acknowledge its existence, a decision that could only be made by obstinate refusal to play the game by the rules, or, in other words, snobbery). The Race is good for business: people like gossip and they like competition, awards commentary provides both in spades. Driven in no small part from the ad revenue from studio’s Oscar campaigns (the ubiquitous FYC ads you see on every major film site during voting season), there’s a vested interest in heightening the controversy, in making a compelling story out of a bunch of people getting together and voting on their favorite movies of the year.

The awards season is now a narrative-driven event, and the simplest narratives put two things in opposition to each other, thus most years, the Oscar race seems to come down to two films, and everyone is encouraged to align themselves with one camp or another. These are the years 1994-2003 of the Best Picture race, the years of heavy consensus, with the winner and the runner-up listed. Note that some years there wasn’t a clear runner-up, in which case I’ve picked the film that seemed like the #2 to me at the time. I could have been wrong. We’ll never know for sure as the Academy doesn’t release voting results.

Year Oscar Winner Runner-Up
1994 Forrest Gump Pulp Fiction
1995 Braveheart Sense & Sensibility
1996 The English Patient Fargo
1997 Titanic LA Confidential
1998 Shakespeare in Love Saving Private Ryan
1999 American Beauty The Insider
2000 Gladiator Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
2001 A Beautiful Mind The Fellowship of the Ring
2002 Chicago The Pianist
2003 Return of the King Master and Commander
It looks to me like in most of these years, the race has been defined by a choice between one traditional Hollywood film and one “edgy” independent. Love stories are pitted against violent dramas, serious melodramas against genre fare, big-budget spectacle against intimate character stories. One could debate the details, but it looks to me like in every year but (possibly) one from 1994 until 2003, the Academy chose the more traditionally appealing film at the expense of the artier, hipper movie. The outlier is 1995, but I’d argue that Ang Lee’s Jane Austen film is much more modern than Mel Gibson’s war epic, though obviously far less violent. Anyway, a reasonable case could be made that the runner-up that year was actually Apollo 13, which is the most traditional of the three, but I think it and Braveheart appealed to the same core audience and was thus unlikely to have been the second-place finisher. Regardless, even with that one outlier, the trend is fairly clear. (A personal note that not every one of the winners this year was my least favorite, I would have made the same choice in three of these years (96, 97 and 98) and am fairly ambivalent about a fourth (2003)).
Now let’s look at the same chart for 2004-2014:

Year Oscar Winner Runner-Up
2004 Million Dollar Baby The Aviator
2005 Crash Brokeback Mountain
2006 The Departed Little Miss Sunshine
2007 No Country for Old Men There Will Be Blood
2008 Slumdog Millionaire The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009 The Hurt Locker Avatar
2010 The King’s Speech The Social Network
2011 The Artist The Tree of Life
2012 Argo Lincoln
2013 12 Years a Slave Gravity
2014 Birdman Boyhood
Here we have chaos. The “edgy” film wins in 2004, 2006-09 and 2013-14, while the more traditionally appealing film wins in 2005 and 2010-12. Though the distinctions between camps are harder than ever to define. Take this past year for example. Boyhood was the consensus critics choice, which would lead one to assume it was the “artier” movie. But its style, aside from the unique method of production, is resolutely traditional, a coming of age story/family drama of the type that has broad mainstream appeal. Birdman, on the other hand, declares itself Edgy with an ostentatious pseudeo-single-take visual style, jarring tonal swings and a deeply cynical screenplay. It is most certainly a film descended from Pulp Fiction (though, I’d argue, one that learned all the wrong lessons from its forebears, but that’s not relevant here). If there is a generational war at play within the Academy, this is what one would expect the Oscar results to look like: pendulum swings back and forth, with neither side gaining enough momentum to push the consensus in one unified direction. Thus we have the significantly lower average totals of wins by Best Picture winners. Whether that represents an actual conflict or one manufactured by journalists pushing a story, I can’t say: the two feed off themselves in such a way that one can only expect further polarization and less consensus as time goes on, absent structural change of some kind.
Looking at these lists, I can’t help but compare them to my own personal award winners. Here’s the full chart for 1994-2014, with the Best Picture Endys added into the mix:

Year Oscar Winner Runner-Up Endy Winner
1994 Forrest Gump Pulp Fiction Chungking Express
1995 Braveheart Sense & Sensibility Dead Man
1996 The English Patient Fargo Comrades, Almost a Love Story
1997 Titanic LA Confidential Boogie Nights
1998 Shakespeare in Love Saving Private Ryan The Big Lebowski
1999 American Beauty The Insider Beau travail
2000 Gladiator Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon La Commune (Paris 1871)
2001 A Beautiful Mind The Fellowship of the Ring Millennium Mambo
2002 Chicago The Pianist Punch-Drunk Love
2003 Return of the King Master and Commander Running on Karma
2004 Million Dollar Baby The Aviator Tropical Malady
2005 Crash Brokeback Mountain The New World
2006 The Departed Little Miss Sunshine The Wind that Shakes the Barley
2007 No Country for Old Men There Will Be Blood Flight of the Red Balloon
2008 Slumdog Millionaire The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Sparrow
2009 The Hurt Locker Avatar Oxhide II
2010 The King’s Speech The Social Network Oki’s Movie
2011 The Artist The Tree of Life The Tree of Life
2012 Argo Lincoln Moonrise Kingdom
2013 12 Years a Slave Gravity La última película
2014 Birdman Boyhood The Midnight After

A few obvious things jump out. Only in one case does my winner match one of the top two Oscar films (though Pulp Fiction is my #2 film of 1994). As they should in comparing a consensus vote to an individual one, my choices are personal and idiosyncratic. This will happen when you compare anyone’s picks to that of a large body: the larger the voting pool, the less unique the winner. My particular idiosyncrasy appears in two forms on this list. Most obvious is the large number of Asian films, 9 out of 21, from China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan (and a 10th that’s a French film made by a Taiwanese director). But also apparent, and more important, are the large number of films that never received wide distribution in the United States (that Asian films are less likely to receive US distribution than comparable European films is a (debatable) issue for another time). Only 10 of my 21 winners had even a reasonably-sized art house run in American theatres, a few have never even qualified for major critics awards, almost all of which tie their eligibility rules to week-long theatrical runs in New York City. Instead I’ve had to seek these films out at festivals or on imported video, bypassing the establishment distribution channels entirely. Critics groups can’t and won’t do this because they are inextricably tied into the distribution system: they depend on studios for screeners and local theatrical audiences for readership.

This raises the question of the purpose of awards. Is it to raise awareness of excellence in motion pictures, to record for posterity the movies we think are great, the ones we recommend viewers of the future to seek out? Or is it a matter of marketing? Do awards matter because, as we hear every year as a justification for the countless words printed on the subject, an Oscar win significantly increases a film’s total gross, in theatrical revenue and on video, for years and decades to come? One may as well ask what is the function of film criticism: to guide the prospective viewer into places they might not go on their own, or to confirm for them what they already believe? If a critic is a guide, then it doesn’t matter whether a film they recommend is immediately available or not: it’s their job to instill the desire to seek in the audience. I think most critics would aspire to that ideal, see for example the flabbergasted responses to this week’s New York Times column lambasting the Oscars for failing to be relevant because they didn’t give awards to the highest-grossing films. Of course, the idea is absurd on its face, but the critical response is telling: to them, the Oscars, in choosing Birdman are not only not elitist, but are resolutely middle of the road. To the critical community, Birdman‘s win is a sign of the Academy’s bowing to the mainstream, of a failure to be sufficiently elite. (I’m speaking in general terms here: there is no “critical community”, there is instead a collection of individuals who disagree with each other as a matter of principle, that is part of their charm. This is, however, the reaction as I understand it in a broad sense).

Why then should critics, critics who travel the festival circuit year-round, who make yearly pilgrimages to Sundance, Locarno, Cannes, Toronto, New York, Vancouver, Berlin, Austin, Venice, Vienna and more, tie themselves to an awards model that narrowly defines what counts as a film in any given year. If awards are a snapshot, preserving the consensus thoughts about cinema at a given time for the sake of posterity, a report from a group of passionate lovers of film about what they believe is great in the present moment, then why should they define that snapshot by the parameters of an industry that views their efforts only in the crudest terms? Should critics not be in opposition to the forces that drive the awards industry, that attempt to limit what we can see? Strong reviews at film festivals can and have led to otherwise invisible films being picked up for US release by adventurous distributors, why does that noble mission stop when awards season begins? The awards bloggers want to limit our conversation to a simple narrative, they want a few, clearly defined poles: good and bad, liberal and conservative, traditional and arty, edgy and populist. The major distributors want to limit our conversation to the films they own and make available to the public: criticism is advertising, no more, no less. We shouldn’t let them. We can’t let every year come down to Forrest Gump vs. Pulp Fiction, that’s not how cinema works and it’s not how history will remember it. It has to be about Forrest Gump and Pulp Fiction and Chungking Express (a film many of us only saw because Quentin Tarantino forced Harvey Weinstein to release it uncut and in its original language, something Weinstein is loathe to do with his Hong Kong properties to this day), not to mention Sátántangó and Ed Wood and Pom Poko and Exotica and The Shawshank Redemption and He’s a Woman, She’s a Man and Three Colors: Red and Drunken Master II and I Can’t Sleep and Hoop Dreams and Clerks and Speed and In the Mouth of Madness and and and.