Predictions for the 91st Annual Academy Awards

These are my Oscar predictions. During the ceremony Sunday night, as I’ve done for the past couple of years, I’ll be live-tweeting the winners of the 2018 Endy Awards, the nominees for which can be found here. Follow along on twitter @TheEndofCinema.

BEST PICTURE

Black Panther
Blackkklansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

BEST DIRECTOR

Spike Lee, Blackkklansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

BEST ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina De Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born

BEST FILM EDITING

BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“All The Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST SOUND EDITING

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

BEST SOUND MIXING

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

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Predictions for the 90th Annual Academy Awards

These are my Oscar predictions. During the ceremony tomorrow night, as I’ve done for the past couple of years, I’ll be live-tweeting the winners of the 2017 Endy Awards, the nominees for which can be found here. Follow along on twitter @TheEndofCinema.

BEST PICTURE

Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST DIRECTOR

Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro

BEST ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

BEST ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

BEST FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
The Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Mighty River,” Mudbound
“Mystery of Love,” Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me,” Coco
“Stand Up for Something,” Marshall
“This is Me,” The Greatest Showman

BEST SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Boss Baby
Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men In Aleppo
Strong Island

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
The Silent Child
All of Us
My Nephew Emmett

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Negative Space
Lou
Revolting Rhymes

This Week in Rankings

RainingintheMountain2.jpg

The end of the year came and went since the last rankings update, which meant a handful of round-up posts here at The End: Books (and Other Words), Film Discoveries, and Endy Award Nominations.

At Seattle Screen Scene I reviewed The PostThe Last JediThe Disaster ArtistPitch Perfect 3DownsizingHostiles, and Goldbuster. We also recorded a couple episodes of The Frances Farmer Show: one on The Last Jedi and one a 2017 Year-in-Review.

At Frame.land, I wrote about the films of Chang Cheh and contributed a brief review of Private Eye Blues. At Mubi, I launched a column on Contemporary Chinese Cinema. The first two are on 2017 in Chinese Film and the pair of Youth and The Thousand Faces of Dunjia.

I wrote some brief year-end stuff at other sites as well: Double Features for Mubi, Cinematic Moments (Claire’s Camera) and Underseen Movies (Our Time Will Come) for Frame.land, and about On the Beach at Night Alone for InReview Online’s Year in Review. This year we of the Seattle Film Critics Society gave out our first official awards, which named Get Out Best Picture and somehow didn’t nominate Baahubali: The Conclusion for anything at all.

Over at The Chinese Cinema, I’ve been rewatching all of Hong Sangsoo’s films in chronological order and reviewing them along the way. So far I have reviews up for The Day a Pig Fell Into the Well, The Power of Kangwon Province, Virgin Stripped Bare by Her Bachelors, On the Occasion of Remembering the Turning Gate, Woman is the Future of Man  and Tale of Cinema. I’ve revised all of my previous writing about Hong Sangsoo and indexed it, and done the same for my writing about King Hu. I also reviewed Evan Yang’s Sun, Moon and Star and Johnnie To and Wai Ka-fai’s Running on Karma. My The Chinese Cinema List at letterboxd is up-to-date with 434 titles as well. And I also made a list of Shu Qi’s movies.

If you like what I do here or at Seattle Screen Scene, The Chinese Cinema, or anywhere else, please consider donating at my kofi page. Every little bit helps.

These are the movies I’ve watched or rewatched over the last few weeks, and where they place on my year-by-year rankings.

Sun, Moon and Star (Evan Yang) – 19, 1961
A Charlie Brown Christmas (Bill Melendez) – 4, 1965
Legend of the Mountain (King Hu) – 3, 1979
Raining in the Mountain (King Hu) – 11, 1979
Dance of the Drunken Mantis (Yuen Woo-ping) – 25, 1979

The Miracle Fighters (Yuen Woo-ping) – 3, 1982
Return of the Jedi (Richard Marquand) – 12, 1983
Drunken Tai Chi (Yuen Woo-ping) – 45, 1984
Flirting (John Duigan) – 12, 1991
In the Heat of the Sun (1994) – 4, 1994

The Day a Pig Fell into the Well (Hong Sansgoo) – 31, 1996
The Dream Factory (Fen Xiaogang) – 37, 1997
The Power of Kangwon Province (Hong Sangsoo) – 16, 1998
Virgin Stripped Bare by Her Bachelors (Hong Sansgoo) – 7, 2000
Bring It On (Peyton Reed) – 20, 2000

On the Occasion of Remembering the Turning Gate (Hong Sangsoo) – 4, 2002
Running on Karma (Johnnie To & Wai Ka-fai) – 1, 2003
Woman is the Future of Man (Hong Sangsoo) – 37, 2004
Tale of Cinema (Hong Sangsoo) – 8, 2005
Assembly (Feng Xiaogang) – 28, 2007

If You are the One 2 (Feng Xiaogang) – 37, 2010
Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson) – 3, 2014
The Force Awakens (JJ Abrams) – 29, 2015
Rogue One (Gareth Edwards) – 40, 2016
Kedi (Ceyda Torun) – 69, 2016
Citizen Jane (Matt Tyrnauer) – 112, 2016

Mother! (Darren Aronofsky) – 5, 2017
Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) – 6, 2017
Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson) – 13, 2017
The Last Jedi (Rian Johnson) – 17, 2017
Downsizing (Alexander Payne) – 21, 2017
The Burden of Other People’s Thoughts (Don Hertzfeldt) – 22, 2017

Lucky (John Carroll Lynch) – 26, 2017
Youth (Feng Xiaogang) – 35, 2017
Kaatru Veliyidai (Mani Ratnam) – 45, 2017
The Work (Jairus McLeary & Gethin Aldous) – 55, 2017
Pitch Perfect 3 (Trish Sie) – 63, 2017
Blade of the Immortal (Takashi Miike) – 70, 2017

Girls Trip (Malcolm D. Lee) – 71, 2017
Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (Griffin Dunne) – 80, 2017
Last Flag Flying (Richard Linklater) – 90, 2017
Goldbuster (Sandra Ng) – 94, 2017
Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin) – 96, 2017

Wonder Woman (Patty Jenkins) – 97, 2017
The Thousand Faces of Dunjia (Yuen Woo-ping) – 98, 2017
The Disaster Artist (James Franco) – 103, 2017
I, Tonya (Craig Gillespie) – 106, 2017
The Fate of the Furious (F. Gary Gray) – 107, 2017
Hostiles (Scott Cooper) – 113, 2017

This Week in Rankings

The last few weeks have been eventful here at The End. Since the last update I made a list of 150 of my Favorite Chinese-Language Films and announced a grand restructuring of my now four-year long and seemingly never-ending project on The Chinese Cinema. It was also awards time, and in addition to the 2016 Endys, I handed out fake movie awards to the films of 1989 and 1988.

Over at Seattle Screen Scene, I wrote about Hong Sangsoo’s Yourself and Yours, Zhang Yimou’s The Great Wall, and Raoul Peck’s I Am Not Your Negro. At the Mubi Notebook, I wrote about Tsui Hark and Stephen Chow’s Journey to the West: Demons Strike Back.

These are the movies I’ve watched and rewatched over the last few weeks, and where they place on my year-by-year rankings.

First Avenue, Seattle, Washington, No. 8 (James H. White) – 1897
Romance of a Fruit Peddler (Zhang Shichuan) – 10, 1922
Romance of the Western Chamber (Hou Tao) – 8, 1927
The Goddess (Wu Yonggang) – 18, 1934
Song of China (Fei Mu & Luo Mingyou) – 25, 1935

Sunday in Peking (Chris Marker) – 30 1956
Diao Chan (Li Han-hsiang) – 18, 1958
Eight Taels of Gold (Mabel Cheung) – 10, 1989
A Fishy Story (Anthony Chan) – 18, 1989
Miracles: Mr. Canton & Lady Rose (Jackie Chan) – 30, 1989

James Baldwin: The Price of the Ticket (Karen Thorsen) – 40, 1990
Once Upon a Time in China IV (Yuen Bun) – 71, 1993
Once Upon a Time in China V (Tsui Hark) – 45, 1994
Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons (Stephen Chow & Derek Kwok) – 6, 2013
Our Sunhi (Hong Sangsoo) – 12, 2013

Blanket Statement #2: It’s All or Nothing (Jodie Mack) – 54, 2014
Yourself and Yours (Hong Sangsoo) – 10, 2016
I Am Not Your Negro (Raoul Peck) – 15, 2016
Curses (Jodie Mack) – 47, 2016
Cave of Sighs (Nathan Douglas) – 53, 2016

A Chinese Odyssey Part 3 (Jeffrey Lau) – 79, 2016
The Great Wall (Zhang Yimou) – 99, 2016
Weeds on Fire (Chan Chi-fat) – 109, 2016
On the Beach at Night Alone (Hong Sangsoo) – 1, 2017
Get Out (Jordan Peele) – 2, 2017

Chang-ok’s Letter (Shunji Iwai) – 3, 2017
Journey to the West: Demons Strike Back (Tsui Hark) – 4, 2017
The LEGO Batman Movie (Chris McKay) – 5, 2017
John Wick Chapter 2 (Chad Stahelski) -6, 2017

Predictions for the 89th Annual Academy Awards

These are my Oscar predictions. During the ceremony tomorrow night, as I’ve done for the past couple of years, I’ll be live-tweeting the winners of the 2016 Endy Awards, the nominees for which can be found here. Follow along on twitter @TheEndofCinema.

BEST PICTURE

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

BEST DIRECTOR

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

BEST ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

BEST FILM EDITING

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

BEST SOUND EDITING

Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

BEST SOUND MIXING

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Predictions for the 88th Annual Academy Awards

These are my picks for the winners of this year’s Academy Awards. On Sunday night, I’ll be tweeting out the winners of the 2015 Endy Awards during the Oscar ceremony. You can follow me there @theendofcinema. Here are the current 2015 Endy Award Nominees. We also had a special Oscar edition of The George Sanders Show last weekend, picking our 2015 favorites and discussing two Oscar films from 1946, best Picture nominee The Razor’s Edge and Best Song nominee Canyon Passage. My predictions are the ones in bold.
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